Hurricane Irene: ‘EXTREME THREAT LEVEL’ Warning Issued For Northeast By The Weather Channel

The Weather Channel Has Issued An ‘EXTREME THREAT LEVEL’ Alert For the Northeast US from The Outer Banks To Main With The Storm Predicted To Land In The NYC Area.

The Weather Channel is now warning millions of people will be impacted by Hurricane Irene as meteorologist warn the storm could surpass the damage done by the benchmark 1938 storm with warnings with Greg Forbes repeatedly warning ‘ this be the most severe weather that many of you have ever encountered’.

This is the worst case scenario which is currently playing out.

In fact the Weather Channel has put the Northeast on an ‘EXTREME THREAT LEVEL’ alert.

Weather Channel Puts Northeast on EXTREME THREAT LEVEL From Hurricane Irene

Computers continue to put the storms track slightly eastward with the front wall of the storm now projected to ride the coast bringing the storm surge directly into New York Harbor.

If Irene tracks near the coast or slightly inland, surge flooding will result

The latest European agency projection predicts landfall in the Chesapeake bay – which would wreak havoc on Washington D.C and Baltimore.

European Hurricane Irene Landfall Model

But the latest U.S. agency models put landfall directly on New York city harbor with the massive storm surge causing severe flooding from the East Coast of New Jersey across New York City and into Long Island.

US Hurricane Irene Landfall Model

The latest from the Weather channel follows.

Hurricane Irene Enhanced Satellite Image

Hurricane Irene: Major Northeast Threats

It’s not every day you see a hurricane forecast cone pointed into the Northeast.

In fact, the concern among meteorologists is high. National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read: “We are very concerned with what’s going to happen in New England. The benchmark is the 1938 hurricane. I am very concerned with what will happen there.”

The potential is real for the strongest hurricane hit on the Northeast in at least a couple decades this weekend!

Hurricane Irene called extreme threat

Hurricane Irene’s threat to the U.S. has been upgraded to extreme. Flooding storm surge, wind damage, and inland flooding from torrential rain, will impact parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

Hurricane Irene May Be The Worst Weather You Have Ever Seen

Let’s lay out all the potential threats and timing involved with Hurricane Irene.

High winds

The 5 a.m. EDT forecast discussion Tuesday from Stacy Stewart, Sr. Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center mentioned Hurricane Irene is “forecast to become a larger than average hurricane.”

This means its wind field, both of tropical storm-force and hurricane-force winds, will cover a large swath of real estate. Reason again not to focus solely on the path of the center of circulation, although it is around and especially east of the eye where the strongest winds will be.

Again, NHC Director Bill Read: “The storm will not lose much as it heads to New England.” While the strongest winds would occur if Irene’s center remains over water, possibly more confined to areas along and east of I-95, high winds would also occur and spread inland if Irene’s center does move inland.

Our graphic below highlights the general area of wind threat from Hurricane Irene. As you can see, a large swath of the Northeast may see power outages and downed trees. The severity will be dictated by Irene’s exact path and intensity, which remain uncertain at this time.

• Timing: Conditions deteriorate Saturday night. Strongest winds Sunday. Lingering strong winds possible Sunday night into early Monday in New England.
• Possible impacts: Widespread trees downed, power outages, particularly near the coast. Potential for some structural damage in strongest gusts near center of Irene.

Northeast high wind impact threat area

Heavy rain/flood threat

It’s already been a wet August in the Northeast.

Philadelphia will likely have its wettest single month on record, breaking a record from Sep. 1999, which included heavy rain from Hurricane Floyd passing to the east.

New York City may also break their previous wettest month record dating back to 1882!

Heavy rain threat from Hurricane Irene (dark green shading) & tornado threat (red shading)

But first…a cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall into the Northeast Thursday. Some areas may seen between 1-3″ of rainfall from these Thursday storms, further soaking already wet ground.

Then, depending on the path of Hurricane Irene (latest forecast), a strip of heavy rainfall is expected, espeically along and just to the west of the path of the center of circulation from eastern North Carolina to New England.

The wet soil from this soggy August will also heighten the concern for downed trees from strong winds.

• Timing: Heavy rain may arrive ahead of Irene’s center Saturday morning along the Delmarva Peninsula, later Saturday in New Jersey and Long Island, and early Sunday morning in New England. Heavy rain may continue through Sunday afternoon in Long Island and NYC metro, and through Sunday night or early Monday morning in parts of New England.
• Potential impacts: Not simply urban flash flooding, but more widespread flash flooding with rapid rises on small creeks and streams. Minor to moderate flooding of some mainstem rivers and tributaries.

Read article: Don’t underestimate inland flood threat

Among those cities: New York City and Atlantic City

According to Knabb, many parts of the Northeast are very vulnerable to storm surge, including New York Harbor and Buzzard’s Bay.

Relative surge vulnerability of the East Coast and Gulf Coast

If Hurricane Irene’s center tracks close or even a little inland of the Jersey Shore into southern New England, that places New York City and southern New England on the eastern semicircle of the circulation, meaning significant storm surge flooding possible in these vulnerable locations! Coastal flooding would also begin well ahead of the arrival of the center of Irene, in this scenario.

• Late Saturday: Delmarva Peninsula
• Saturday night/Sunday: N.J. shore, NYC/Long Island
• Sunday/Sunday night: Coastal New England

How rare are Northeast hurricanes?

Going back to 1851, there have been only 5 hurricanes whose centers of circulation have passed within 75 miles of New York City. The last hurricane within that distance from New York City was Hurricane Gloria 26 years ago.

Read article: NYC’s hurricane history

Similarly, only 10 hurricanes since 1851 have passed within 75 miles of Boston. The most recent was almost exactly 20 years ago: Hurricane Bob.

Historical Hurricane center tracks within 75 miles of New York City (left) and Boston (right)

A typical tropical cyclone flirting with the Northeast will have weakened to a Category 1 hurricane or a strong-end tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northeast.

The danger with Hurricane Irene is that it could still be at least a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, if not a rare Category 3 near the Northeast seaboard!

See what people are saying about the weather: New York | Boston

So, are you truly “hurricane ready?”

Now is the time to prepare your hurricane plan, not when a hurricane is bearing down.

WeatherREADY: Preparedness tips | Watch Video

Watch The Weather Channel and check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this major Northeast threat.